Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
1100 am MST Mon Nov 11 2019
18z taf cycle
low clouds and fog will gradually erode across the east today,
lingering longest along the east slopes of the central and south
central mountains. Gusty East Canyon winds are expected in the Rio
Grande Valley through the afternoon and into the early evening from
Santa Fe southward. Drier air will filter in from the northeast this
evening, preventing a return of low clouds and fog tonight.
Previous discussion...904 am MST Mon Nov 11 2019...
very dry cold air advection moving into eastern nm on brisk north to
northeast winds has ended the threat for hazardous winter weather
impacts over northeastern nm today. The near-term hrrr/rap and WRF
bufr profiles indicate boundary layer profiles will continue to dry
through the morning in the winter wx advisory area therefore it has
been canceleed. The main focus for any freezing drizzle and fog with
a few light rain/snow showers will stretch from Clines Corners south
to the east slopes of the SAC mts where wind and moisture profiles
are more favorable. Gap winds are still on target to move into the
rgv later this morning with cold advection limiting high temps to
their 9 am values.
Previous discussion...232 am MST Mon Nov 11 2019...
an abrupt weather change is expected for Veterans Day, especially
across central and eastern New Mexico where readings will be 15 to
45 degrees colder compared to Sunday. An Arctic cold front will be
responsible for the well below normal temperatures, along with low
clouds and light wintry precipitation, especially in the northeast.
This may result in slick roadways, including Interstate 25. A few
slick spots may also occur along the Interstate 40 corridor during
the morning and afternoon hours. Meanwhile, strong northeast winds
will occur near the Texas border along with gusty gap winds in the
Rio Grande and upper Tularosa valleys. Above average readings will
return by mid-week before another backdoor front briefly drops high
temperatures on Thursday. Another storm system is forecast to swing
across northern and eastern New Mexico during the upcoming weekend.
this will be a rather tricky short-term forecast with respect to
potential impacts across eastern nm. An Arctic boundary has moved
into northeast nm with widespread stratus from the Colorado Front
Range into the upper Midwest. In addition, there are several sites
from Denver to Goodland reporting snow, fog and freezing drizzle.
This activity is forecast to slide southward, albeit moisture will
be more limited, and may result in hazardous travel conditions in
the northeast plains.
The latest model soundings are generally similar to earlier runs,
with light snow favored near Raton Pass and northern Union County.
Drizzle is likely further south, especially closer to the higher
terrain. Most locales in the east have already recorded their high
temperature for today as strong cold air advection will result in falling/steady
readings. The main challenge is determining which locations will
drop below freezing and whether it will be juxtaposed with drizzle.
The nbm/met guidance suggests this is likely to occur east of the
sangres, but there is concern further south near the I-40 corridor.
Meanwhile, a tight surface pressure gradient will support 25-30 kt
winds with higher gusts near the Texas border. When balancing the
primary hazard, and in coordination with neighboring offices, have
decided to hoist a Wind Advisory from Union to Roosevelt counties.
Meanwhile, freezing drizzle will likely be the greater impact from
Colfax to San Miguel counties, or the I-25 corridor. Will issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for hazardous travel conditions, mainly on
elevated surfaces. Ice accumulations should be minimal (trace). To
keep things simple and allow for a degree of uncertainty, will run
headlines effective immediately through 22z, but it is conceivable
they could be discontinued early. Gusty below canyon winds can be
expected in the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa valleys, but should
remain below advisory criteria.
The thermometer pendulum will swing drastically the other way by
mid-week as upper level heights increase compliments of a ridge to
our west. Readings will climb 20-40f by Wednesday, with some areas
15f above normal in the northeast. A moisture-starved backdoor cold
front is expected to invade the eastern County Warning Area Wednesday afternoon and
evening, bringing cooler readings in its wake.
Deterministic global models are in better agreement regarding the
weekend - suggesting a low amplitude trough axis will swing across
the land of enchantment. These are also in-line with the ensembles.
As a result, residence time of this system should be short and any
precipitation will be limited and focused over the northeast zones.
the Arctic cold front has moved into northeast nm early this
morning. The front will continue to south and west through the day.
The front will surge through the gaps and canyons of the Central
Mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley. A solid area of low
clouds follow the frontal passage, with freezing drizzle and snow
being reported in Colorado. We will issue a winter weather advisories that
includes the northeast Highlands. Strong winds will also follow the
front. The strongest winds will be near the Texas border. We will issue
wind advisories that includes the northeast plains and the eastern
portion of the east Central Plains. Temperatures will be way below
what they were yesterday across the east. Temperatures will fall
through the morning across the east and not rise much this afternoon.
Highs will only be in the 20s and 30s in the east. Minimum relative humidity will
range from the teens and 20s in the west and 40s to 50s in the east.
Ventilation rates will be good in the northwest and much of the east,
with the remaining areas fair to poor. Good to excellent relative humidity
Tuesday through the weekend will be dry, aside from a possible snow
shower in the northern sangres Saturday night. Temperatures will be
on a roller coaster ride with warming Tuesday and Wednesday, cooler
in the east Thursday behind a backdoor cold front, then warmer in
all locations Friday. Little change Saturday and cooler again in the
east Sunday behind another back door front. Ventilation will be
mostly fair to poor from Friday on. Minimum humidities will be mostly
above 15 percent, except Wednesday across much of the east. Chj