Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS65 KABQ 060552 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1052 PM MST Thu Dec 5 2019 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE An area of low clouds and fog is expected to produce MVFR and IFR conditions across the northwest highlands from around Cuba and Chama westward to around Navajo Lake for the remainder of tonight until late morning on Friday. There may also be a few patches of low clouds and fog in the west central valleys, perhaps impacting Gallup and Grants toward morning. In addition, northeast and east central areas may have a few patches of low clouds and fog, potentially impacting Clayton and Tucumcari. High clouds will increase in coverage across most of the forecast area for the remainder of tonight through Friday morning, and will probably linger along and south of I-40 through Friday afternoon. For the remainder of tonight, these should limit radiational cooling some with a resultant reduction of some of the low cloud and fog development. Low clouds and fog will gradually burn off Friday morning, lingering longest around Dulce and Cuba. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...235 PM MST Thu Dec 5 2019... .SYNOPSIS... The storm system that brought mountain snow as well as windy conditions to the eastern plains will exit later tonight. A dry backdoor cold front will then move across the eastern plains overnight, but an overall quiet night is expected. Temperatures will be cool on Friday, especially in the east in the wake of the backdoor cold front. The next storm system to impact the state will arrive Sunday, bringing another round of rain and mountain snow to western and northern New Mexico through Monday. Quiet conditions then continue again through mid-week as temperatures warm to near normal. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... Water vapor imagery today shows the core of the upper level low pressure system ejecting eastward across the Front Range of the Rockies. A well-defined dry slot within the base of the upper low along with deepening surface low pressure over northeastern NM has allowed for widespread windy conditions across the plains. The current Wind Advisory will continue as planned through 5 pm. Cold advection with moist and unstable orographics over the northern mts will allow snow to continue along west slopes for a couple more hours. The latest HREF and RAP guidance shows snow tapering off quickly by late day. The Winter Wx Advisory will be cancelled once radar indicates precip exiting the area. 12Z/18Z near-term BUFKIT profiles indicate potential for patchy fog overnight around northern and western valleys. Meanwhile, a back door cold front will slide thru eastern NM in the wake of the departing upper wave tonight. This front will trend temps several degrees cooler for Friday across the plains. Winds will however be lighter statewide on Friday as a weak shortwave ridge crests over the state. A thick band of high clouds will move east over the state Friday afternoon which will lead to filtered sunshine and make it feel even cooler. High clouds will continue sliding overhead Friday night. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A weak surface low will develop over southeastern CO Saturday, and as a result, winds will increase across eastern NM, particularly the I-40 corridor from CQC to TCC. Did increase winds with this package, but speeds remain below advisory thresholds. Otherwise, temperatures across the east should warm about 10 to 15 degrees compared to Friday due to downsloping winds. It should be a gorgeous Saturday though with warmer temperatures and dry weather. The next storm system that will impact portions of the state will move into the Great Basin area on Sunday. Ahead of this upper-level trough, subtropical moisture will stream into western NM. This will help generate showers across the west early Sunday before the main trough passes over northern NM on Monday. With 700mb temperatures around -1 to -3C Sunday, snow levels will start high, keeping snow primarily over the Chuska and northern mountains. As 700mb temperatures fall to -4 to -6C early Monday behind a cold front, some lower elevation areas could see light snow has snow levels fall between 5500 and 6500 feet. Accumulating snow is expected to remain in the high terrain though where the northern mountains could pick up a few inches of snow. This system will move through too quickly for anything significant, however. That system exits Monday night, and then quiet weather conditions are anticipated through Wednesday as a weak ridge builds over the area. Another weak disturbance could then clip northern NM Thursday. This system looks to be drier, but it could bring cooler temperatures and breezy conditions toward the end of the week. Guyer/15 && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong west winds across parts of eastern NM and light snow over the northern mountains will exit the area tonight. Poor ventilation with lighter winds and cooler temperatures are on tap Friday. West winds will increase again Saturday ahead of the next storm system. Another round of valley rain and mountain snow will develop across northern and western NM Sunday and Sunday night. Cooler and drier conditions will arrive in the wake of this system with periodic breezy winds over eastern NM through Tuesday. Ventilation will be poor to fair most days except Sunday and Monday when temporary improvement is expected. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.