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fxus65 kabq 162324 aaa 
afdabq

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm
424 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Aviation...
00z taf cycle
gradual clearing of mid to high clouds from NW to se over nrn and
central nm with nwly upper winds. Surface low over east central nm
at 23z to sag swd with cold front reaching far NE nm by 17/04z and
progressing swd through the ern plains by 17/12z with occasionally
gusty north winds. LCL MVFR cigs/vsbys and light precipitation
obscuring terrain possible from the krtn-kcao area in the wake of the
front but diminishing around 17/16z.

&&

Previous discussion...314 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019...
synopsis...
a cold front moving in from the north tonight is forecast to bring
minor cooling to western and central New Mexico on Sunday with 10 to
15 degrees of cooling to eastern areas. High temperatures rebound
Monday and Tuesday ahead of a storm system over northern Baja
California. This system is forecast to tap remnant moisture from
Tropical Storm Raymond and bring good chances for widespread rainfall
to much of the state Tuesday night and Wednesday. A second, colder
storm system is forecast to bring more rain and mountain snow late in
the work week.

&&

Discussion...
areas of high clouds continue to stream from west to east across nm
today. Meanwhile, a mostly dry backdoor cold front slides southward
through southern Colorado. This front will push from north to south through
northern and central nm overnight. Most cooling will occur east of
the Central Mountain chain on Sunday. A few flurries or sprinkles are
possible near Raton Pass and along the Bartlett Mesa. The cool-down
on Sunday is short-lived as temperatures rebound nicely Monday and
Tuesday.

All eyes then turn to the closed upper-level low over northern baja
and the remnant moisture from ts Raymond. GFS and ecwmf prog the
closed low to get picked up in the southwest flow ahead of a
secondary trough/low over the pacnw. Models agree that the southerly
flow ahead of the baja low will tap remnant moisture from Raymond,
bringing a large swath of rain with snow above about 8500-9000 feet
up from the southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible, mainly for western and central nm, as pwats
approach and possibly break all-time November records.

GFS and ecwmf forecasts start to diverge Wednesday night with regards
to how the second low moves and evolves along the Southern California
coastline. GFS brings the low much farther to the east, near the
Grand Canyon by 12z Thursday. The ecwmf, on the other hand, keeps
the low offshore until after 06z Friday. Sided with the slower ecwmf
solution given that its operational run is very similar to its
51-member ensemble run and the GFS operational run is faster than its
ensemble mean. At any rate, Thursday night and Friday look wet with
snow levels around 6500 feet or so. Given precipitable water values near record
highs and plentiful atmospheric lift ahead of the low center, expect
areas of heavy snow with this system.

33

&&

Fire weather...
a backdoor front will slide down the eastern plains tonight and
provide some cooling going into Sunday. However, temperatures will
rebound Monday and be above normal areawide under dry northwest flow
aloft. Vent rates will be a mixed-bag of poor to fair through
Monday. Moisture advection will begin Tuesday and continue Wednesday
in advance of a baja low, which is forecast to open up and move over
the state as a shortwave trough ahead of a much colder upper low.
The colder upper low is forecast to take shape over California, then
lift east-northeast over the Desert Southwest, Great Basin and
southern rockies going into the end of the work week. This all adds-
up to higher humidity with increasing chances for wetting
precipitation beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Friday.
Snow levels will start off rather high with the weakening baja low,
then lower Wednesday night into Thursday to include mid slope
elevations.

11

&&

Abq watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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